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Monday, July 25, 2011
The only way to save the Big 12
I am going to skip over a lot of key issues which have already been run into the ground. The Longhorn Network, the hurt feelings of the Aggies and the Sooners.......no matter what side of the debate you are on, we're all tired of talking about it.
Since state politics seem to have A&M and Texas tied to Baylor and Texas Tech and Oklahoma tied to Oklahoma State, the odds of any of these entities splintering off to join the SEC are remote. The most likely of the unlikely scenarios is Tim Brando's A&M/OU/OSU/Mizzou exodus to the SEC and even that will require the Aggies to work a miracle of state politics. But how long can the Big 12 survive with every off-season consumed with talks of secession? SOMETHING needs to change. SOMETHING needs to happen that is dynamic and is such a game-changer in terms of money so that the disgruntled of the Big 12 are pacified regardless of individual networks and 3rd tier rights.
Everyone, and I mean everyone, on every side of every issue seems to acknowledge that the days of 16 team super-conferences are coming. While everyone believes this, most conference leaders seem to be taking a wait and see, counter-punching approach to this issue, which is ridiculous. There are only a finite amount of elite, huge $ programs in the country.....and very few of those which will even consider a move. Larry Scott, the commissioner of the PAC 12 is a freakin' genius for several reasons, not the least of which is that he realized that whoever moves first will get the biggest prize. He was VERY close to a PAC 16 that would have been the standard in terms of eyeballs watching TVs. Cali and Texas TVs would have been locked up. No other conference, not even the Big 10 adding Notre Dame and a couple of nice ACC schools, could have made as big a splash in going to 16 teams. And it was all because the PAC was willing to act first.
Larry Scott admitted that a "tsunami of political pressure" from state politicians in Texas kept the PAC 16 from happening. Just like when the SWC collapsed, somehow, Baylor is able to flex insane political muscle to keep it from being split up from Texas and A&M. This is the only reason Dan Beebe, the Big 12 commissioner, has a job today. Now, Beebe can passively stand by, waiting for the political tables to turn in Texas and for Baylor to finally become vulnerable, OR he can learn a lesson from Larry Scott, be proactive, and grab up the best expansion candidates first by being the first league to go to 16 teams. Unlike what you may read on college football message boards, while Beebe isn't a genius, he is also not a fucking idiot. He is smart enough to copy Larry Scott's blueprint for success and this blueprint has two genius elements. Obviously, Beebe needs to act first. And secondly, and most importantly, is the concept of the "geographic pod."
Larry Scott's PAC 16 plan was fucking awesome because it pretty much brought over the geographically convenient Big 12 South. While a trip from Austin to Corvallis seems like a nightmare, most conference contests in all sports would have been held within the "geographic pod" and the 2 Arizona schools - all manageable commutes. For the sake of football.....when you factor in home games, former Big 12 South opponents and in-state out of conference games, a team like Texas A&M in the PAC 16 would have had only 1 or 2 West Coast trips a year. It was a brilliant structure. Beebe needs to steal this idea. Any expansion to 16 for the Big 12-2 needs to target on schools in one geographically convenient area. The spoils of going first means you get your pick of the best the nation has to offer and it reveals an opportunity for a geographic pod in a very populous state (with lots of eyeballs watching TVs) that can rival the state of Texas in terms of recruiting. It is a goldmine waiting for Beebe to pounce on it.
It is the State of Florida.
It goes without saying that UF is firmly entrenched in the SEC. Fine. However, FSU, Miami, USF and UCF are all prime for the plucking. Miami has been in the ACC for less than a decade and FSU is a frequent team which pops in SEC expansion rumors. It is hard to imagine that the Canes would want to be in an ACC without FSU. USF is in the bottom of the current barrel of BCS conferences and would love to be conference partners with FSU and Miami. UCF would have a 7 week orgasm at the opportunity of joining this league. The move would be brilliant. The Florida schools would be playing most of their conference games in all sports against each other. One conference would have a stranglehold on recruiting and TV presence in Texas and Florida. This is almost too good to be true. Miami and FSU would get better exposure to Texas recruits while OU, Texas and A&M would get a new window in to Florida recruits. The TV money would be unparalleled for conference 1st and 2nd tier rights. It would be THE Goliath in college football.
Of course, this just gets you to 14 teams. Ideally, a couple of other schools would need to be plucked away and the closer they are to the Florida pod the better. How about Georgia Tech? Great academics, the Atlanta TV market, and wouldn't the Yellow Jackets love this unprecedented avenue to recruiting Texas and Florida high school players? After Georgia Tech, the Big 12 could turn its attention to a Clemson or a Maryland (DC market?).....or maybe, just maybe, Notre Dame. This isn't as silly as it sounds. We know that the Big 10 has been unsuccessfully seducing the Irish since Jesus wore short pants. Whatever the Big 10 has, it isn't what Notre Dame wants. What Notre Dame wants is the recruiting opportunities and the money making bonanza of a Big 16 which owns the states of Texas and Florida and has a big toe in the waters of the Atlanta market.
How would this break down to divisions, it would be weird....here is a stab at it:
West:
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Baylor
OU
Okie State
Kansas
Kansas State
East:
Notre Dame
Missouri
Ga Tech
Iowa State
UCF
USF
FSU
Miami
It seems weird because it is weird. Nothing like it has ever been tried. But the potential positives far outweigh the negatives. There would be more than enough money for everyone. The recruiting profile of all schools involved would go through the roof. The Big 12/16 would become inherently stable and Beebe would look like a genius and a pioneer......all because he was smart enough to mimic Larry Scott. Or he can stand by, be passive, and counter-punch his way out of a job.
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ReplyDeleteNotre Dame would not do it.
ReplyDeleteUCF is not as valuable as you think they are or the Big East would have already jumped on them like they did TCU.
USF wouldn't be a bad 6th school if you needed one to round out to a 16 team league. There are better choices though.
Georgia Tech? Nice.
Miami? Nice.
Florida State? Nice.
If you are going nationwide, why not instead invite:
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Maryland
That would be one heck of a conference.
TestBlog, the Big East took TCU because they had no choice. Their absense in the BCS polls meant the possibility of losing AQ status if another repeat performance this year. As for UCF joining the Big East, the Big East is full of BBall schools that don't want any more full members... and they really don't "have to" invite UCF until next year before TV contract negotiations start. Nobody else is threatening stealing UCF, so why not wait to make sure it is the best decision for the conference.
ReplyDeleteUSF has been in the weakest AQ conference for 7 seasons now and has done NOTHING with it, never finishing the season ranked and never winning the conference.
As for this article, I couldn't stop laughing after I read FSU to the SEC. The author really doesn't understand that conferences are about more than just football or basketball, there is also the academic and cultural requirements.